Pengaruh Urbanisasi, Kepadatan Penduduk, dan Konsumsi Bahan Bakar Terhadap Emisi Karbon di Indonesia

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of urbanization, population density, and fuel consumption on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Indonesia over 1995–2024. Using annual secondary data from the World Bank, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and the Ministry of Transportation, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to capture short-run and long-run dynamics. Stationarity is examined with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and the selected ARDL(2,2,4,4) model passes normality, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation tests, and is structurally stable based on CUSUM tests. The bounds test confirms a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, although none of the three independent variables individually shows a significant long-run effect on emissions. In the short run, urbanization and fuel consumption significantly and positively affect emissions, while population density is not significant. Jointly, the three variables explain 91.44 percent of short-run variation in emissions, with a significant negative error correction term confirming convergence toward long-run equilibrium. The findings imply that short-run carbon emission control policy in Indonesia should prioritize fuel efficiency and energy transition in the transportation sector.