ANALISIS JALUR SUKU BUNGA DAN KREDIT DALAM TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the monetary policy transmission mechanism in
Indonesia through interest rate and credit channels, and evaluate their
effectiveness and response speed toward real output and inflation for the 2017–
2024 period. The research method used is quantitative with a Vector
Autoregression (VAR) or Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to
capture dynamic relationships and long-term linkages between variables. The
tested variables include BI7DRR, money market interest rates, credit interest
rates, credit volume, Industrial Production Index (IPI), and inflation. The results
show a cointegration relationship that validates the error correction mechanism
toward long-term equilibrium. Both channels significantly transmit monetary
policy signals to the real sector, although an incomplete interest rate pass-
through remains in credit rates. The study concludes that both channels play
vital roles in affecting aggregate demand, with their effectiveness depending on
the banking sector's adjustment speed. Bank Indonesia is advised to strengthen
policy coordination to minimize transmission barriers, ensuring price stability
and sustainable economic growth.