Pertumbuhan Sektoral dan Kemiskinan pada Provinsi di Indonesia Pasca-Covid: Analisis Perbandingan Kota-Desa

Abstract

Poverty remains a major development challenge in Indonesia, with different patterns across urban and rural areas following the COVID-19 pandemic. This study analyzes the effects of growth in the agricultural, mining, manufacturing, trade, and service sectors on urban and rural poverty across 34 Indonesian provinces during 2021–2024, while controlling for gross fixed capital formation, open unemployment, and the human development index. Secondary panel data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) were analyzed using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method. The results show that agricultural growth significantly increases urban poverty but has no significant effect in rural areas. Manufacturing and trade growth significantly reduce rural poverty, whereas mining and service-sector growth are insignificant. Gross fixed capital formation reduces urban poverty but increases rural poverty, while the human development index significantly lowers rural poverty. These findings suggest that sectoral growth policies should be tailored to regional characteristics and supported by inclusive investment and human capital development to accelerate poverty reduction