Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan (MedREP)

Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan Antarwilayah Di Indonesia

Hummaira Annexa Putri, Joan Marta — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study aims to analyze the effects of government expenditure on education, health, infrastructure, and social protection on interregional income inequality in Indonesia. The study uses panel data from 34 provinces over the period 2015–2024, with the Gini ratio as the dependent variable, government expenditure on education, health, infrastructure, and social protection as the independent variables, and GDP per capita and the unemployment rate as control variables. The analysis employs panel data regression, with the best model selected based on model specification tests. The results show that education expenditure has a negative and significant effect on income inequality in Western Indonesia and Indonesia as a whole, but has no significant effect in Central and Eastern Indonesia. Health expenditure has a positive and significant effect on income inequality in Indonesia as a whole, but has no significant effect in Western, Central, or Eastern Indonesia. Infrastructure expenditure has no significant effect in any region. Social protection expenditure has a positive and significant effect on income inequality in Central Indonesia, but has no significant effect in Western, Eastern, or Indonesia as a whole. Simultaneously, government expenditure on education, health, infrastructure, and social protection significantly affects income inequality. These findings indicate that the effects of government expenditure vary across sectors and regions. Therefore, government expenditure policies need to be adjusted to the characteristics and needs of each region.

Pengaruh Urbanisasi, Kepadatan Penduduk, dan Konsumsi Bahan Bakar Terhadap Emisi Karbon di Indonesia

Ilham Taufik, Fandy Triawan — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study analyzes the effects of urbanization, population density, and fuel consumption on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Indonesia over 1995–2024. Using annual secondary data from the World Bank, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and the Ministry of Transportation, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to capture short-run and long-run dynamics. Stationarity is examined with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and the selected ARDL(2,2,4,4) model passes normality, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation tests, and is structurally stable based on CUSUM tests. The bounds test confirms a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, although none of the three independent variables individually shows a significant long-run effect on emissions. In the short run, urbanization and fuel consumption significantly and positively affect emissions, while population density is not significant. Jointly, the three variables explain 91.44 percent of short-run variation in emissions, with a significant negative error correction term confirming convergence toward long-run equilibrium. The findings imply that short-run carbon emission control policy in Indonesia should prioritize fuel efficiency and energy transition in the transportation sector.

Dampak Kondisi Makroekonomi Domestik Dan Komoditas Minyak Mentah Dunia Terhadap Kinerja Pasar Modal Indonesia Periode 2016-2025

Arizal Adi Prasetyo, Ariusni — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Pasar modal berperan penting sebagai indikator perekonomian suatu negara, namun kinerjanya rentan terhadap gejolak makroekonomi domestik dan komoditas dunia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak inflasi, suku bunga Indonesia, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS, harga minyak mentah dunia, dan harga emas dunia terhadap kinerja pasar modal Indonesia, baik melalui Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) maupun indeks sektor energi, infrastruktur, dan keuangan periode Januari 2016-Desember 2025. Penelitian menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan analisis regresi linier berganda pada data bulanan. Hasil menunjukkan kelima variabel secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap keempat model. Secara parsial, harga minyak mentah dan emas dunia konsisten berpengaruh positif dan signifikan pada sebagian besar model, sedangkan inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar berpengaruh bervariasi antar sektor sesuai karakteristik biaya dan pendapatan masing-masing. Temuan ini mendukung teori pilihan portofolio yang menyatakan alokasi portofolio investor dibentuk oleh penilaian menyeluruh atas berbagai risiko sistematis secara simultan. Penelitian ini menyarankan investor mempertimbangkan sensitivitas sektoral terhadap variabel makroekonomi dalam diversifikasi portofolio, serta bagi peneliti selanjutnya memperluas periode penelitian dan menggunakan pendekatan yang mencari hubungan asimetris antar variabel.

Faktor- Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja Di Pulau Sumatera

Rafli Gumanda Azmi, Joan Marta — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Produktivitas tenaga kerja merepresentasikan indikator esensial yang mencerminkan kapabilitas suatu wilayah dalam menghasilkan keluaran secara efisien. Pulau Sumatera memegang peran strategis sebagai motor penggerak ekonomi nasional dengan sumbangan sekitar 22 persen terhadap produk domestik bruto, meskipun tingkat produktivitas kerjanya masih diwarnai oleh disparitas antardaerah yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor pendidikan, pengupahan, kesehatan, teknologi informasi dan komunikasi, serta penanaman modal dalam negeri. Riset ini mengkaji berbagai determinan tersebut melalui metode regresi data panel dengan bantuan EViews 14 Student Version. Hasil analisis menetapkan Fixed Effects Model sebagai spesifikasi terbaik yang menunjukkan bahwa pendidikan, upah, dan teknologi informasi dan komunikasi berdampak positif serta signifikan terhadap produktivitas tenaga kerja, sementara kesehatan berpengaruh negatif signifikan, dan penanaman modal dalam negeri belum menunjukkan signifikansi statistik.

Faktor - Faktor Penentu Pendapatan Pengusaha Umkm Di Sektor Kuliner Di Kota Sawahlunto

Sitinur fadila, Sri Ulfa Sentosa — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study was motivated by the development of Sawahlunto as a tourist destination and world cultural heritage site, which has spurred the growth of culinary MSMEs. However, there are still discrepancies in research findings regarding the factors that influence MSME revenue. This study aims to analyze the effects of capital, labor, business tenure, and internet usage on the revenue of culinary MSMEs in Sawahlunto, both partially and simultaneously. This study employs an associative quantitative method using a survey approach. The population consists of 105 culinary MSMEs across four subdistricts in Sawahlunto, with a sample of 51 respondents selected using simple random sampling. Primary data were collected through questionnaires and interviews, then analyzed using multiple linear regression with the aid of SPSS version 25. The results of the study show that, simultaneously, capital, labor, business tenure, and internet usage have a significant effect on the revenue of culinary MSMEs. Partially, capital and labor have a positive and significant effect, while business duration and internet usage do not have a significant effect on the revenue of culinary MSMEs in Sawahlunto City.

Determinan Lama Mencari Kerja bagi Pengangguran di Kota Padang

Ridho Saputra, Muhammad Irfan — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Prolonged job search hampers labor market absorption, especially in large cities. Padang City had the largest number of open unemployed people in West Sumatra in 2024, yet the determinants of its job seekers' unemployment duration are poorly understood. This study analyzes the effects of age, education, sex, job training, marital status, and area of residence on job search duration among the unemployed in Padang City. Using 2024 National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) data with 173 observations (93 uncensored, 80 censored), the study applies Cox proportional hazards regression, with likelihood ratio and Wald tests. The median job search duration is 25 months. The six variables jointly affect unemployment duration significantly (LR χ²(8) = 18.49; p = 0.0178). Partially, only marital status is significant (HR = 2.45; p = 0.016): married job seekers leave unemployment about 2.45 times faster than unmarried ones. Sex is significant only at the 10 percent level (HR = 1.75; p = 0.070), while age, education, job training, and area of residence are not. Job placement programs should therefore pay attention to unmarried job seekers, who search the longest, and future studies should use larger samples.

Pengaruh Inklusi Keuangan dan Digitalisasi Ekonomi Terhadap Kesejahteraan Ekonomi di Indonesia

Fioxca Sunardi, Fandy Triawan — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Kesenjangan kesejahteraan ekonomi antarprovinsi di Indonesia masih menjadi tantangan yang dapat menghambat pembangunan ekonomi yang inklusif. Inklusi keuangan dan digitalisasi ekonomi diharapkan mampu meningkatkan kesejahteraan regional melalui perluasan layanan keuangan, peningkatan produktivitas ekonomi, dan dukungan terhadap transformasi digital. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh inklusi keuangan dan digitalisasi ekonomi terhadap kesejahteraan ekonomi regional di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel yang mencakup 34 provinsi di Indonesia selama periode 2020–2024 dengan jumlah 170 observasi yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Bank Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan adalah regresi data panel dengan Fixed Effect Model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) dimensi akses dan ketersediaan dalam inklusi keuangan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDRB per kapita; (2) dimensi penggunaan dalam inklusi keuangan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB per kapita; (3) digitalisasi ekonomi, investasi, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kesejahteraan ekonomi regional; dan (4) seluruh variabel independen secara simultan berpengaruh terhadap PDRB per kapita dengan menjelaskan 82,59% variasi dalam provinsi.

Pengukuran dan Determinan Kemiskinan Multidimensi Perkotaan: Studi Di Kota Padang

Sintia Sri Maharani, Muhammad Irfan — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The definition of poverty is very diverse, comprehensive, and multidimensional. The measurement of poverty using consumption and income approaches is insufficient in explaining the various deprivations experienced by the poor. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the measurement and determinants of multidimensional poverty in the city of Padang. The data used is the SUSENAS KOR 2023 data with the unit of analysis being households. The method in this study is the measurement of multidimensional poverty using the Alkire-Foster method, the relationship between dimensions of multidimensional poverty is conducted using Pearson correlation, while the determinants of multidimensional poverty are analyzed using logistic regression. The research results show that the multidimensional poverty index value in Padang City in 2023 is 0.062838, with a multidimensional poverty rate of 17.10% and a deprivation intensity of 36.73%. The Pearson correlation results indicate that the highest correlation is found between the education dimension and the living standards dimension, with a positive relationship level of 0.1393. Meanwhile, the results of the logistic regression show that the variables of the head of household's age, the head of household's education level, the number of household members, and the classification of the region (location) significantly influence the likelihood of households experiencing multidimensional poverty. These findings indicate that to determine policy/program priorities for poverty alleviation, such as strengthening preventive and curative health services in densely populated areas and prioritizing equitable regional infrastructure development through integrated public service centers.

Pengaruh Kesetaraan Gender dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Ketimpangan Pendidikan di Indonesia

Delvio Fortsty Ananda, Joan Marta — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Educational inequality in Indonesia is closely tied to socioeconomic conditions and uneven regional development. This study aims to analyze the independent and collective impacts of gender parity, poverty levels, government educational expenditure, per capita GRDP, and income inequality on educational disparities across Indonesia. Using a quantitative approach combining descriptive and associative designs, the study analyzes panel data from 34 provinces over 2020–2024 (170 observations), with total sampling. Educational inequality was measured using the Education Gini Coefficient, while gender equality was measured using the Gender Development Index, poverty using the percentage of the poor population, government expenditure using per capita education expenditure, GRDP using GRDP per capita, and income inequality using the Gini Ratio. Through REM shows poverty significantly worsens educational disparity, while gender equality and education expenditure act as significant equalizers. The effects of per capita GRDP, though negative, remain insignificant at a 5% margin, similar to the Gini Ratio which yields no substantial impact. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly impact educational inequality, with an overall R-squared of 53.11%. The findings indicate that increasing gender equality and education expenditure, as well as reducing poverty, are associated with efforts to reduce educational inequality across provinces in Indonesia.

Analisis Hubungan Desentralisasi Fiskal dan Pembangunan Wilayah Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

Yoza Adelia Khairan, Muhammad Irfan — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study aims to analiyze relationship between expenditure side fiscal decentralization and sustainable regional development across 38 provinces in Indonesia in 2014, 2019, and 2024. Sustainable regional development is measured using the Regional Sustainable Development Index (RSDI), which include economic, social, and environmental pillars aggregated using the geometric mean. This study uses secondary data from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK) of Ministry Of Finance, Statistic Indonesia (BPS), and the Ministry Of Environment and Forestry (KLHK) The analysis uses Spearman’s rank correlation because the data are not normally distributed based on the Shapiro-wilk test. The result show that expenditure side fiscal decentralization is not signicant relationship with the economic pillars, social pillars, or RSDI across all observation periods. A consistently significant negative relationship is found between expenditure side fiscal decentralization and the environmental pillar. These finding demonsrates the existence of an ecological trade-off in the implementation of regional autonomy. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing environmentally oriented budgeting and regional fiscal transfer incentive schemes to reduce the risk of environmental degradation resulting from development expansion.