Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan (MedREP)

Pengaruh Belanja Pemerintah Daerah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Sumatera Barat

2026-04-27T07:41:47+00:00

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pengaruh belanja pemerintah daerah yang dikategorikan menurut ekonomi meliputi belanja pegawai, belanja barang dan jasa, belanja modal dan investasi sebagai variabel kontrol terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa data panel Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Barat periode 2018-2024. Uji hipotesis dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan regresi data panel memalui pendekatan Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Hasil yang diperoleh yaitu belanja barang dan jasa dan belanja modal berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat, sedangkan belanja pegawai dan investasi berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Secara simultan belanja pegawai, belanja barang dan jasa, belanja modal dan investasi menunjukkan pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Dari hasil tersebut, dapat disimpulkan bahwa belanja barang dan jasa dan belanja modal berperan signifikan dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Oleh karena itu penting adanya peningkatan alokasi anggaran untuk komponen belanja barang dan jasa dan belanja modal oleh pemerintah Kabupaten/kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat.

Analisis Efisiensi Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Antar Provinsi di Indonesia Menggunakan Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)

2026-06-20T04:10:38+00:00

This study analyzes the efficiency of sustainable development across 34 provinces in Indonesia during 2019-2023 using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with an output-oriented Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) model. Inputs include regional government expenditure and labor force, while outputs comprise Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), and Environmental Quality Index (EQI). The analysis covers 170 decision-making units (DMUs). The results indicate that the national average efficiency score increased from 0.9357 in 2019 to 0.9639 in 2023, although disparities among provinces persist. North Kalimantan consistently achieved full efficiency throughout the study period. In addition, seven provinces achieved full efficiency at least once, namely Gorontalo, East Kalimantan, West Papua, Riau Islands, DKI Jakarta, DI Yogyakarta, and Bangka Belitung Islands. In contrast, Lampung, West Java, and East Nusa Tenggara recorded the lowest average efficiency scores. Potential improvement analysis reveals that GRDP per capita exhibits the largest performance gap, particularly in East Nusa Tenggara. These findings suggest that sustainable development efficiency depends not only on resource availability but also on the effectiveness of resource allocation and management.

Pengaruh Kualitas Dan Partisipasi Tenaga Kerja Perempuan, Serta Faktor Ekonomi Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Indonesia

2026-07-15T10:31:04+00:00

Poverty remains a major development challenge in Indonesia despite the declining national poverty rate, with substantial disparities across provinces. These differences indicate that variations in women's human capital, labor market participation, and regional economic conditions may influence poverty in different ways. Previous studies have generally examined women's education, health, labor participation, and macroeconomic factors separately, leaving limited evidence on their combined effects within a single analytical framework. This study investigates the effects of women's average years of schooling, women's life expectancy, the female labor force participation rate, economic growth, and foreign direct investment on poverty across 34 Indonesian provinces during 2018–2025, with the open unemployment rate included as a control variable. Panel data regression was estimated using the Fixed Effect Model with Panel Corrected Standard Errors (FEM-PCSE). The results show that women's average years of schooling significantly reduces poverty, whereas the female labor force participation rate, foreign direct investment, and the open unemployment rate have significant positive effects. Women's life expectancy and economic growth are negatively associated with poverty but are not statistically significant. The model explains 98.6% of the variation in poverty (adjusted R² = 0.9864). These findings emphasize the importance of expanding women's educational attainment, improving the quality of female employment, and promoting more equitable foreign investment to accelerate poverty reduction in Indonesia.

PRODUKTIVITAS TENAGA KERJA DAN TINGKAT INFLASI DI INDONESIA

2026-05-05T08:42:01+00:00

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation on labor productivity in Indonesia by incorporating education, health, and information and communication technology (ICT) as control variables. The study uses panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia during the period 2015–2024, resulting in 340 observations. The analytical method employed is the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) to address endogeneity issues and capture the dynamic nature of labor productivity.

The results show that inflation has a positive and statistically significant effect on labor productivity, with a short-run coefficient of 0.1117 and a long-run coefficient of 0.1668. In addition, education and health have positive and significant effects, while ICT has a negative and significant effect on labor productivity.

These findings indicate that moderate inflation can stimulate economic activity and increase productivity, while human capital plays a crucial role in enhancing labor productivity. However, the negative impact of ICT suggests that technology utilization has not been fully optimized for productive activities.

This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence using a dynamic panel approach at the provincial level in Indonesia. The findings imply that maintaining stable and moderate inflation, along with improving human capital and optimizing technology utilization, is essential to enhance labor productivity.

Kemiskinan Energi Dan Kesehatan Anak : Analisis Pada Rumah Tangga Di Sumatera Barat

2026-07-03T06:15:57+00:00

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kemiskinan energi terhadap kesehatan anak di Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Kemiskinan energi diukur melalui dua indikator, yaitu energi memasak dan energi penerangan. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga memasukkan variabel kontrol berupa pendidikan ibu, sanitasi MCK, usia anak, dan klasifikasi lokasi tempat tinggal. Data yang digunakan merupakan data Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (SUSENAS) Tahun 2024 dengan unit analisis anak usia 0–15 tahun di Sumatera Barat. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi logistik biner karena variabel dependen berupa status kesehatan anak yang diklasifikasikan menjadi anak yang mengalami keluhan kesehatan dan tidak mengalami keluhan kesehatan.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa energi penerangan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesehatan anak. Anak yang tinggal pada rumah tangga miskin energi penerangan memiliki peluang lebih besar mengalami keluhan kesehatan dibandingkan anak yang tinggal pada rumah tangga dengan akses penerangan yang memadai. Sebaliknya, energi memasak tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesehatan anak. Variabel kontrol yang berpengaruh signifikan adalah sanitasi MCK, pendidikan ibu, dan usia anak. Anak yang tinggal pada rumah tangga dengan sanitasi kurang layak dan ibu berpendidikan rendah cenderung memiliki risiko lebih tinggi mengalami keluhan kesehatan. Sementara itu, klasifikasi lokasi tempat tinggal tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya peningkatan akses energi, sanitasi, dan pendidikan untuk mendukung kesehatan anak di Sumatera Barat.

Determinan Investasi Portofolio Asing di Indonesia

2026-04-14T00:50:43+00:00

This study aims to analyze the influence of external and internal factors on foreign portfolio investment in Indonesia. Variables used are the Fed Rate, global risk, exchange rate volatility, and interest rates. The data used is a sequence of data for the period 1993Q1-2024q4. The analysis method used is Error Correction Model (ECM) to identify short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The results showed that in the short term the variable Fed Rate and global risks have a significant negative effect, while the volatility of exchange rates and interest rates did not show a significant effect on foreign portfolio investment in Indonesia. In the long run, all variables have a significant effect on foreign portfolio investment in Indonesia. The Fed Rate, global risks, and interest rates have a negative influence, while exchange rate volatility has a positive effect. These results indicate that external factors predominantly influence the flow of foreign portfolio investment in Indonesia.

Analisis Produksi Sektor Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia

2026-06-13T07:35:37+00:00

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This study aims to analyze the effects of labor, raw materials, and electricity consumption on manufacturing sector output in Indonesia. The data used consists of panel data for 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2017 to 2023, obtained from publications of the Indonesian Central Statistic Agency. This study employed panel data regression analysis, with the Random Effect Model selected as the preferred model. The findings indicate that the variabels of labor, raw materials, and electricity consumption have a positive and significant impact on manufacturing sector production in Indonesia. Consequently, the government’s role is essential in improving human resource quality, developing strategies for optimalraw material processing, and adopting energy-efficient technologies to ensure continuity in the production process. The Return to Scale value is 1, indicating a Constant Return to Scale condition.

Analisis Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Output Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Di Indonesia

2026-07-14T08:56:06+00:00

This study aims to analyze the effect of harvested rice area, fertilizer use, agricultural machinery and equipment, and agricultural labor on food crop agricultural output in Indonesia. The study employs panel data covering 33 provinces in Indonesia during the 2019–2023 period. The data used are secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Agricultural Information System Data Center. The dependent variable in this study is food crop agricultural output, while the independent variables include harvested rice area, fertilizer, agricultural machinery and equipment, and agricultural labor. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach. The results indicate that, partially, harvested rice area has a negative and significant effect on food crop agricultural output in Indonesia. Meanwhile, fertilizer has a negative but insignificant effect, agricultural machinery and equipment have a positive but insignificant effect, and agricultural labor has a negative and insignificant effect on food crop agricultural output. Simultaneously, all independent variables have a significant effect on food crop agricultural output in Indonesia. These findings suggest that agricultural production factors collectively play an important role in determining the level of food crop agricultural output in Indonesia.

Dampak Stabilitas Sektor Perbankan terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit di Indonesia

2026-05-05T08:01:45+00:00

Peneilitian ini mengkaji dampak stabilitas sektor perbankan terhadap pertumbuhan kredit di Indonesia selama periode kuartal I 2004 hingga Kuartal IV 2024 menggunakan data time series kuartalan yang bersumber dari Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) dan Bank Indonesia. Stabilitas Perbankan diukur melalui tiga indikator utama : risiko kredit (NPL), kecukupan modal (CAR), dan likuiditas (LDR), dengan pertumbuhan GDP dan inflasi sebagai variabel kontrol. Metode Error Correction Model (ECM) Engle-Granger digunakan untuk menganalisis dinamika jangka pendek dan mekasnisme koreksi menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Hasil uji kointegrasi mengkonfirmasi adanya hubungan jangka panjang yang stabil antar variabel. Estimasi ECM menunjukkan NPL berpengaruh negatif signifikan (koefisien = -2,1755; p = 0,0003), LDR berpengaruh positif signifikan (koefisien = 0,3010; p = 0,085), dan CAR berpengaruh negatif pada taraf 10 persen (koefisien = -6258; p= 0,057). Koefisien ETC sebesar 24,60 persen per kuartal. Temuan ini menegaskan pengendalian risiko kredit sebagai faktor paling determinan dalam mendukung pertumbuhan kredit berkelanjutan dan stabilitas perbankan sebagai prasyarat fundamental efektivitas intermediasi keuangan di Indonesia.

Analisis Kelayakan Dan Strategi Pengembangan Wilayah Dalam Wacana Pembentukan Daerah Otonom Baru Provinsi Sumatera Tengah

2026-06-27T09:15:17+00:00

The discourse on the establishment of Central Sumatra Province aims to assess regional feasibility and formulate development strategies for a prospective autonomous region (DOB). This study applies a descriptive quantitative approach using a scoring method based on Government Regulation Number 78 of 2007. Supporting analyses include fiscal autonomy degree, Location Quotient (LQ), Klassen Typology, and SWOT analysis. The findings show that the proposal has been submitted by community leaders, but no official approval has been issued by the central government. Technically, all proposed regions, namely Sijunjung, Dharmasraya, South Solok, Kuantan Singingi, Kerinci, Bungo, and Sungai Penuh City, have not met the feasibility threshold during 2020-2024, particularly in regional potential and financial capacity indicators. Fiscal independence remains low, averaging only 9.01%, indicating strong dependence on central government transfers. The regional economy is still dominated by the primary sector, except in Sungai Penuh City and Bungo Regency, where the service sector is more developed. Therefore, strengthening fiscal capacity, optimizing local revenue, downstreaming leading commodities, and improving human resources and infrastructure should become priorities before regional expansion is implemented.

ANALISIS EFISIENSI PRODUKSI PERIKANAN DI KABUPATEN PESISIR SELATAN

2026-04-08T16:36:34+00:00

This study examines the effects of the number of boats, fishing gear, fishermen, and fisheries entrepreneurs on fisheries production in Pesisir Selatan Regency, both partially and simultaneously. This research uses a quantitative approach with secondary panel data, combining cross-section data from 10 districts and time series data from 2013–2024. The analysis employs multiple linear regression with a panel data approach and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) to measure production efficiency. The results indicate that the number of fishing gear and fishermen has a positive and significant effect on fisheries production, while the number of boats and fisheries entrepreneurs does not have a significant effect. The efficiency level of fisheries production ranges from 0.46 to 0.49, indicating that it is still inefficient. In conclusion, optimizing the use of fishing gear and improving the capacity of fishermen are crucial to increasing production and efficiency. It is recommended that the local government strengthen guidance and empowerment programs for fishermen and enhance the effective utilization of production factors.

PENGARUH TINGKAT PENDIDIKAN, PENANAMAN MODAL DALAM NEGERI, TINGKAT PARTISIPASI ANGKATAN KERJA DAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT

2026-06-10T05:29:42+00:00

This study comprehensively to analyze the influence of several variables,namely education level, domestic investment (PMDN), labor force participation rate (TPAK), and open unemployment rate (TPT) on economic growth in West Sumatra Province. Secondary data was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) covering 19 regencies/cities for the 2020-2024 period. The analysis used panel data-based multiple linear regression with a fixed effects model as the best model. The results show that education level, PMDN, and TPAK have a positive and significant influence on economic growth, while TPT has a negative and significant influence on economic growth. Therefore, the government needs to strengthen policies by improving the quality of education, encouraging productive domestic investment, expanding employment opportunities, and addressing unemployment through job creation to support sustainable economic growth.

Pengaruh Modal Manusia Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan : Analisis Pendidikan Dan Kesehatan

2026-07-10T12:01:12+00:00

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of human capital, measured through education and health indicators, on the poverty rate in Indonesia. The data used in this study were secondary data obtained from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) across 34 provinces in Indonesia during the period 2015-2024. The research employs a panel data regression approach with the selected model being the Random Effect Model. The results show that education, health, the open unemployment rate, and the provincial minimum wage have an influence on the poverty rate in Indonesia. Improvements in the quality of education and health contribute to reducing poverty through increased productivity and the ability of individuals to obtain income, while unemployment conditions and income levels are important factors affecting the effectiveness of poverty reduction. These findings indicate that strengthening human capital needs to be supported by expanding employment opportunities and improving economic welfare so that poverty allevation strategies can be implemented effectively and sustainably.

PENGARUH JUMLAH PENDUDUK, PENDIDIKAN, KESEHATAN DAN PENGANGGURAN TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI PULAU SUMATRA

2026-04-29T07:09:35+00:00

This study aims to examine the factors influencing poverty levels on the island of Sumatra. The data used is panel data, comprising data from 10 provinces in Sumatra from 2010 to 2024. Processed data was obtained through from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The research method is quantitative with a descriptive and associative approach. Panel data regression analysis was used, with the Random Effects Model (REM) being the best model. The results found that population size has a positive and significant effect on poverty levels on the island of Sumatra. Education has a negative and significant effect on poverty levels on the island of Sumatra. Health has a negative and significant effect on poverty levels on the island of Sumatra. Unemployment has a positive and significant effect on poverty levels on the island of Sumatra.

Pengaruh Pendidikan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Pulau Sumatera

2026-06-23T04:15:11+00:00

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pendidikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Pulau
Sumatera tahun 2015-2025. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh Angka Partisipasi Kasar Sekolah Menengah, Angka
Partisipasi Kasar Perguruan Tinggi, Rata-rata Lama Sekolah, Harapan Lama Sekolah, NEET, dan Tingkat
Pengangguran Terbuka terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif
dengan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Data yang digunakan berupa data panel
yang mencakup 10 provinsi di Pulau Sumatera selama periode 2015-2025. Analisis regresi data panel dilakukan
dengan bantuan perangkat lunak Stata 17 dan FEM terpilih sebagai model estimasi terbaik. Pengujian hipotesis
dilakukan secara parsial melalui uji t dan secara simultan melalui uji F. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Angka
Partisipasi Kasar Sekolah Menengah dan Angka Partisipasi Kasar Perguruan Tinggi berpengaruh negatif dan
signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Rata-rata Lama Sekolah dan Harapan Lama Sekolah berpengaruh
positif namun tidak signifikan, sedangkan NEET berpengaruh negatif namun tidak signifikan dan Tingkat
Pengangguran Terbuka berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Temuan ini
menunjukkan pentingnya peningkatan kualitas pendidikan dan kondisi pasar tenaga kerja dalam mendukung
pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan di Pulau Sumatera.

Pengaruh Pendidikan Vokasi dan Gender Terhadap Pengangguran di Sumatera Barat

2026-07-20T11:02:02+00:00

Pengangguran merupakan salah satu permasalahan ketenagakerjaan yang dapat menghambat pembangunan ekonomi. Pendidikan vokasi diharapkan mampu meningkatkan kompetensi dan kesiapan kerja sehingga dapat mengurangi risiko pengangguran. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pendidikan vokasi dan gender terhadap pengangguran di Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Penelitian ini menggunakn data cross section yang mencakup 8.437 individu usia kerja Metode yang digunakan adalah regresi logistik biner (binary logistic regression). Hasil ini menunjukan bahwa : (1) pendidikan vokasi berpengaruh negatif dan sinifikan terhadap pengangguran, sehingga individu yang memiliki pendidikan vokasi memiliki peluang menjadi penganggur lebih rendah dibandingkan individu dengan pendidikan non-vokasi. (2) gender berpengaruh postif dan sinifikan terhadap pengangguran. (3) interaksi antara Pendidikan vokasi dan gender tidak berpengaruh signifikan. (4) wilayah tempat tinggal berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pengangguran. (5) status perkawinan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pengangguran.

ANALISIS JALUR SUKU BUNGA DAN KREDIT DALAM TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA

2026-05-11T04:38:24+00:00

This study aims to analyze the monetary policy transmission mechanism in
Indonesia through interest rate and credit channels, and evaluate their
effectiveness and response speed toward real output and inflation for the 2017–
2024 period. The research method used is quantitative with a Vector
Autoregression (VAR) or Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to
capture dynamic relationships and long-term linkages between variables. The
tested variables include BI7DRR, money market interest rates, credit interest
rates, credit volume, Industrial Production Index (IPI), and inflation. The results
show a cointegration relationship that validates the error correction mechanism
toward long-term equilibrium. Both channels significantly transmit monetary
policy signals to the real sector, although an incomplete interest rate pass-
through remains in credit rates. The study concludes that both channels play
vital roles in affecting aggregate demand, with their effectiveness depending on
the banking sector's adjustment speed. Bank Indonesia is advised to strengthen
policy coordination to minimize transmission barriers, ensuring price stability
and sustainable economic growth.

Pengaruh Pendidikan, Pelatihan Kerja, Upah dan Kesehatan Terhadap Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja di Indonesia

2026-07-08T01:59:35+00:00

Labor productivity is a key indicator of human capital quality and national economic competitiveness. Despite continuous socioeconomic progress in Indonesia, productivity disparities across provinces remain substantial, suggesting heterogeneous effects of human capital factors. This study examines the effects of education, job training, wages, and health on labor productivity while incorporating investment and information and communication technology (ICT) as control variables. Secondary panel data from 34 provinces during 2017–2024 were analyzed using panel data regression. The Random Effect Model (REM) was selected based on the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The findings reveal that job training, wages, and health have a positive and statistically significant effect on labor productivity. Education shows a positive coefficient but is not statistically significant. Investment and ICT also contribute positively as control variables. Simultaneously, all explanatory variables significantly influence labor productivity. These results highlight the importance of strengthening workforce competencies through targeted training, ensuring equitable wage policies, improving public health, and accelerating digital transformation to support sustainable productivity growth across Indonesia.

Pengaruh Belanja Kesehatan Pemerintah Terhadap Angka Kematian Bayi Di Indonesia Dengan Kualitas Tata Kelola Pemerintahan Sebagai Variabel Moderasi

2026-04-27T07:59:59+00:00

This study examines the effect of government health spending on infant mortality in Indonesia and tests the moderating role of governance quality, proxied by government effectiveness and voice and accountability. Using a quantitative time-series approach with data from 2004–2024 obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI), Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, this research employs multiple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) using Stata 14. The results indicate that in the baseline model, health spending significantly reduces infant mortality. However, after including interaction terms, the direct effect of health spending becomes insignificant, while the interaction between health spending and both governance indicators is statistically significant. This confirms that the effectiveness of health spending in reducing infant mortality is conditional on the quality of governance. The findings imply that increasing the health budget must be accompanied by bureaucratic strengthening, policy implementation effectiveness, enhanced accountability, and greater public participation. This study contributes to the public finance and health system governance literature by providing empirical evidence from Indonesia

Determinan Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah Tangga dan Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Barat

2026-06-20T15:17:44+00:00

Household consumption expenditure and poverty rate are important indicators for assessing societal welfare. This study analyzes the influence of per capita income, number of family members, and education level on household consumption expenditure, as well as the influence of per capita income, education level, and unemployment rate on poverty rate in West Sumatra Province. The data used are district/city panel data for the period 2019–2023, sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data analysis was conducted using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results indicate that in the household consumption expenditure model, all independent variables do not have a meaningful effect. Meanwhile, in the poverty model, per capita income has a unidirectional and meaningful effect, education level has an inversely meaningful effect, and the data do not show evidence that the unemployment rate contributes to changes in the poverty rate. Based on these findings, the government is advised to expand access to education, improve the quality of human resources, and formulate more targeted poverty alleviation policies according to regional characteristics in West Sumatra Province.

KEBIJAKAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN TINGKAT INFLASI DI NEGARA-NEGARA ASIA PASIFIK

2026-07-20T06:07:57+00:00

Inflasi merupakan salah satu indicator penting yang mencerminkan stabilitas perekonomian suatu negara dan dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, baik dalam negeri maupun di luar negeri. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan perdagangan internasional yang diproksikan dengan tarif impor terhadap Tingkat inflasi di negara negara Asia Pasifik dengan memasukkan variabel control berupa pengeluaran pemerintah, konsumsi rumah tangga, dan jumlah uang beredar. Penelitian menggunakan data panel dari 18 negara Asia Pasifik selama periode 2013-2022 dengan total 180 observasi. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel, dengan pemilihan uji chow, hausman, dan lagrange multiplier yang menunjukkan bahwa Random Effect Model (REM) merupakan model terbaik. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa tarif impor berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan pada Tingkat signifikan 10% terhadap inflasi. Pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh negative dan signifikan, konsumsi rumah tangga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sedangkan jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh negative namun tidak signifikan. Dummy perang dagang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan pada tingkat signifikan 10%. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa dinamika inflasi di negara negara asia pasifik dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan perdagangan internasional, khususnya perubahan tariff impor, serta didukung oleh faktor-faktor makroekonomi domestic.

Pengaruh Pendidikan, Kesehatan Dan Upah Minimum Terhadap Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK) Perempuan Di Indonesia

2026-05-06T04:25:58+00:00

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pendidikan, kesehatan, dan upah minimum terhadap tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja (TPAK) perempuan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) periode 2018–2024 yang mencakup 34 provinsi, dengan metode analisis regresi data panel menggunakan Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pendidikan dan kesehatan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja perempuan, sedangkan upah minimum memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan dengan arah yang bervariasi sesuai kondisi ekonomi daerah. Secara simultan, ketiga variabel tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap TPAK perempuan di Indonesia. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan perempuan merupakan faktor utama dalam mendorong partisipasi mereka dalam pasar tenaga kerja, sementara kebijakan upah minimum perlu disesuaikan agar dapat memberikan insentif yang optimal bagi perempuan untuk bekerja.

Analisis Penerima Bantuan Sosial Terhadap Pengeluaran Konsumsi Non Pangan Rumah Tangga Miskin di Sumatera Barat

2026-07-04T16:23:56+00:00

This study is motivated by the predominance of food expenditure among poor households, highlighting the need to examine the factors influencing non-food consumption expenditure as an indicator of improved household welfare. The study aims to analyze the effect of social assistance and household socioeconomic characteristics on non-food consumption expenditure among poor households in West Sumatra Province. A quantitative approach was employed using data from the 2024 National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), which were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The independent variables include social assistance, educational attainment of the household head, employment status of the household head, gender of the household head, age of the household head, and area of residence. The results indicate that the educational attainment of the household head and the area of residence have a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of poor households having higher non-food consumption expenditure. Meanwhile, social assistance, employment status, and the age of the household head do not have a statistically significant effect, whereas the gender of the household head has a negative effect and is only significant at the 10 percent significance level. These findings suggest that improvements in educational attainment and residential conditions play a more substantial role in increasing non-food consumption expenditure than the receipt of social assistance. Therefore, the government should enhance educational quality, expand access to economic facilities across regions, and improve the effectiveness of social assistance programs to better support the welfare of poor households

Analisis Kecukupan Modal di Sistem Perbankan Indonesia

2026-04-27T04:56:09+00:00

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in the Indonesian banking sector. The data used consists of panel data from 22 conventional commercial banks for the period 2017Q1–2025Q4, sourced from financial statements and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). The independent variables include operational efficiency (BOPO), credit risk (NPL), liquidity (LDR), Bank Size, and profitability (ROA). The analysis employs panel data regression using the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) based on the Chow and Hausman tests. The results show that all variables collectively¹ have a significant impact on CAR. BOPO has a negative impact and NPL has a positive impact, while LDR and Bank Size have positive impacts on CAR, and ROA has a negative impact on CAR. These findings highlight the importance of efficiency, risk management, and performance improvement in strengthening capital adequacy and maintaining banking stability.

Analisis Sentra Komoditas Unggulan Sektor Pertanian di Kabupaten Tanah Datar

2026-06-13T12:56:48+00:00

This study aims to analyze the flagship commodities and production centers for each flagship commodity in the agricultural sector of Tanah Datar Regency. This study uses secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Tanah Datar Regency Agriculture Office for the 2021–2025 period, covering 14 subdistricts, with data on total production (tons) in the food crops, vegetable horticulture, fruit horticulture, bio-pharmaceutical horticulture, and plantation crops subsectors. The analytical methods used include the Static Location Quotient (SLQ), Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ), and a combination of SLQ and DLQ. The results of the study indicate that the flagship commodities in Tanah Datar Regency include: rice, sweet potatoes, peanuts, curly chili peppers, tomatoes, chayote, cardamom, noni, avocados, and cloves. Each commodity has production centers spread across specific subdistricts, reflecting regional differences in potential and comparative advantages. This distribution pattern indicates that each subdistrict plays a distinct role in supporting agricultural sector development, thereby serving as a foundation for formulating region-based policies for the development of key commodities.

Determinan Konversi Lahan Pertanian di Provinsi Sumatera Barat: Analisis Data Panel Dengan Pendekatan Teori Land Rent

2026-07-15T10:38:42+00:00

This study examines the determinants of paddy field area (Luas Baku Sawah/LBS) in West Sumatra Province during 2019–2024. Agricultural land conversion has become a critical issue threatening regional food security, driven by sectoral economic growth and demographic pressure. Using panel data from 19 regencies/cities and Random Effect Model (REM) estimation selected through Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, this study analyzes the influence of agricultural GRDP, industrial GRDP, population, transportation and warehousing GRDP, and mining GRDP on LBS. The land rent theory, encompassing Ricardo's differential rent, Von Thünen's location theory, and Alonso's bid-rent model, provides the theoretical framework. Results show that agricultural GRDP, population, and transportation-warehousing GRDP positively and significantly affect LBS, while industrial GRDP has a significant negative effect, and mining GRDP shows no significant effect. Simultaneously, all variables significantly explain 44.44 percent of LBS variation. These findings imply that strengthening agricultural competitiveness and controlling industrial land expansion are essential for sustaining paddy field areas in West Sumatra.

Analisis Hubungan Ketimpangan Regional Di Indonesia : Sebelum Dan Setelah Pandemi

2026-05-05T08:07:02+00:00

This study aims to analyze the level of regional and human development inequality between provinces in Indonesia and examine the relationship between the two before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The variables used include per capita income (GRDP), education (average years of schooling), unemployment (open unemployment rate), and health (percentage of the population with health complaints). This study uses secondary data from the (BPS) covering 34 provinces in 2015, 2020, and 2024. The analytical method used is descriptive analysis with the Coefficient of Variation (CV) to measure the level of inequality, as well as inferential analysis using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test and correlation analysis. The results show that regional development inequality in terms of income tends to decrease relatively. Human development inequality in education indicators shows a decline, indicating equity, while inequality in health indicators tends to increase, and inequality in unemployment decreases with the post-pandemic economic recovery. Inferential test results show significant differences before and after the pandemic, as well as a relationship between income inequality and human development. This study concludes that the pandemic has had a different impact on each dimension of inequality, necessitating more inclusive and equitable development policies to reduce disparities between regions in Indonesia.

Dampak Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia Analisis Fenomena J-Curve

2026-07-03T04:22:01+00:00

This study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Indonesia's bilateral trade balance with Japan, the United States, India, Singapore, and China, and to test the existence of the J-Curve phenomenon and the Marshall-Lerner condition. The data used are quarterly data for the period 1993Q1–2024Q4 sourced from the IMF and other related agencies. The analytical method used is VECM with the Impulse Response Function analysis tool to identify the J-Curve. The results show that the J-Curve phenomenon is proven to occur in Indonesia's bilateral trade with Japan and the United States, so that the Marshall-Lerner condition is fulfilled in both countries, while in India, Singapore, and China the J-Curve phenomenon is not proven to occur. These findings indicate that the effectiveness of the exchange rate in improving the trade balance is highly dependent on the structural characteristics of each partner country's trade. This study provides an empirical contribution through the VECM approach on bilateral data with a long and comprehensive period coverage. The implications of this policy indicate that the effectiveness of exchange rate policy in improving Indonesia's trade balance needs to be supported by strengthening export capacity and implementing import substitution strategies.

Dampak Pemekaran Daerah Terhadap Struktur Ekonomi Kabupaten Sijunjung Dan Kabupaten Dhamasraya

2026-04-11T14:21:19+00:00

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak dari pemekaran terhadap struktur ekonomi daerah baik pada daerah induk maupun daerah pemekaran. Penelitian ini menggunakan data tahun 2000 – 2003 sebagai data sebelum pemekaran dan data tahun 2010 – 2023 sebagai data setelah pemekaran di Kabupaten Sijunjung dan Kabupaten Dhamasraya. Data diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Provinsi Sumatera Barat, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kabupaten Sijunjung dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Dhamasraya. Metode analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode Location Quotient (LQ), Shift Share, dan Overlay. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah (1) Tidak terdapat perubahan sector unggulan sebelum dan setelah pemekaran di Kabupaten Sijunjung. Namun, terdapat perubahan sector unggulan sebelum dan setelah pemekaran di Kabupaten Dhamasraya. (2) Terdapat perubahan struktur ekonomi sebelum dan setlah pemekaran di Kabupaten Sijunjung dan Kabupaten Dhamasraya. (3) Terdapat perubahan sector unggulan terhadap daya saing ekonomi di Kabupaten Sijunjung dan Kabupaten Dhamasraya.

Pengaruh Faktor-Faktor Sosial Terhadap Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Perempuan Pada Sektor Formal di Indonesia

2026-06-10T06:53:57+00:00

This study analyzes various social factors that influence women’s participation in the formal labor force in Indonesia. The focus of the research is directed at identifying the variables determining work participation decisions, including education level, marital status, area of residence, job training, and work experience. Using a quantitative method, this study utilizes secondary data from the 2020 National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS). The analysis was conducted using a binary logistic regression model with 399,935 female respondents of productive age (15–64 years) to estimate their chances of participation in the formal sector. The findings indicate that education, marital status, place of residence, and job training have a significant positive influence, while work experience is significantly negatively correlated. The Likelihood Ratio test also confirmed that, collectively, all independent variables contribute significantly to women’s participation in the formal sector. Overall, these results underscore that improving access to education and enhancing the efficiency of job training programs are key drivers of women’s engagement in the formal sector. Therefore, this study recommends women’s empowerment policies focused on strengthening human capital through formal education and accredited job training.

Analisis Permintaan Uang Kartal di Indonesia

2026-07-13T08:15:15+00:00

This study is motivated by the rapid development of payment systems in Indonesia and the limited number of studies integrating digital, banking, and macroeconomic factors in explaining the demand for currency in circulation. The study aims to examine the effects of electronic money, demand deposits, time deposit interest rates, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the demand for currency in circulation in Indonesia. Quarterly data for 2015–2024 obtained from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia (BPS) were analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that electronic money and time deposit interest rates have no significant effect in either the short run or the long run. Demand deposits positively and significantly affect currency demand only in the long run, indicating a complementary relationship with the demand for currency in circulation. Inflation has a negative and significant long-run effect, while GDP has a positive and significant effect in both the short run and the long run. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly affect the demand for currency in circulation. These findings indicate that the demand for currency in circulation in Indonesia remains mainly driven by real economic activity rather than by the expansion of digital payment instruments. Therefore, monetary stability should be maintained alongside the development of an efficient and inclusive digital payment ecosystem.

Determinan Pengangguran Gender pada Negara Upper Middle Income di Negara APEC

2026-07-24T06:54:59+00:00

This study aims to examine the factors influencing gender unemployment in upper-middle-income countries in APEC countries. The data used is panel data, namely data from 6 upper-middle-income countries in APEC countries from 2009-2023. The data used is secondary data obtained from the World Bank and UNDP. This research method is a quantitative method with a descriptive and associative research approach. This study uses panel data regression analysis with the best model selected being the Random Effect Model (REM). The results found that the number of productive-age population has a negative but insignificant effect on gender unemployment in upper-middle-income countries in APEC countries. The dependency ratio has a positive and significant effect on gender unemployment in upper-middle-income countries in APEC countries. Economic growth has a positive and significant effect on gender unemployment in upper-middle-income countries in APEC countries. Education has a negative but insignificant effect on gender unemployment in upper-middle-income countries in APEC countries

Analisis Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing, Pendapatan Asli Daerah dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Ketimpangan Wilayah di Provinsi Sumatera Barat

2026-06-24T15:03:25+00:00

Regional inequality is a common phenomenon in the economy, arising from variations in the quality of natural resources and demographic conditions in each region. Inequality in West Sumatra showed a significant increase between 2007 and 2023. This study aims to determine whether the variables of Foreign Investment, Regional Original Income, and the Human Development Index have an influence on Regional Inequality in West Sumatra Province. The method used in this analysis is multiple linear regression. The type of data analyzed is secondary data compiled by BPS (Central Statistics Agency) in the form of a time series. From the results that have been studied, it is revealed that the variables of Foreign Investment, Regional Original Income, and the Human Development Index show a positive influence, but do not have a significant impact on regional inequality in West Sumatra Province

Pengaruh Belanja Pendidikan, Kesehatan, Dan Perlindungan Sosial Terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan Di Pulau Jawa

2026-04-02T17:23:00+00:00

Income inequality remains a major obstacle to economic development in Java, which has a high concentration of economic activities. This study aims to analyze the effect of government spending on education, health, and social protection on income inequality, with economic spending and GRDP as control variables, during 2015–2024. Panel data from six provinces were analyzed using beta regression because the dependent variable is the Gini ratio. The results show that spending on education and social protection has a positive and significant effect on inequality, while health spending and GRDP have a negative and significant effect. Economic spending as a control variable also has a positive significant effect. These findings indicate that government budget allocation and regional economic growth play a key role in income distribution and human and social development. Therefore, budget allocation should focus on targeting education and social protection programs effectively, integrated with productive economic policies to sustainably reduce income inequality.

Analisis Dampak Variabel Moneter Terhadap Stabilitas Perekonomian Indonesia

2026-06-10T05:20:49+00:00

This study aims to analyze the impact of monetary variables on Indonesia’s economic stability during the period 2010Q1-2024Q4 using the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) method, Variables include GDP growth (proxy for economic stability) and three monetary variables: inflation, the policy interest rate ( BI Rate), and the money supply (M2), Using quarterly time-series data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau Of Statistics (BPS), the results show that: (1) inflation does not significantly affect GDP in the short term but has a long-run relationship through the cointegration mechanism; (2) The BI Rate is proven effective in controlling inflation through the interest rate transmission channel as confirmed by IRF analysis; (3) money supply (M2) has a significant negative effect on GDP in the long run with a coefficient of -1.507; and (4) the Error Correction Term (ECT) of -0.917 indicates that the Indonesian economy has a very strong self-correcting mechanism of 91.7% per quarter. The FEVD result show that inflation contributes the most to GDP variation among monetary variables (15% by period ten). The findings reinforce both the Quantity Theory of Money and the IS-LM transmission framework, and imply sustained commitment to Indonesia’s Inflation Targeting Framework.

Dampak Deposito, Kredit, dan BI Rate terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

2026-07-08T04:45:36+00:00

This study is based on the importance of economic growth as a key indicator of economic performance reflected in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The role of the banking sector as a financial intermediary and monetary policy through the BI Rate influences the dynamics of Indonesia’s economic growth. Empirical observations show that deposits, credit, and the BI Rate did not always move in line with GDP during the 2010–2024 period, indicating the need for an empirical analysis of their relationships. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of deposits, credit, and the BI Rate on Indonesia’s economic growth in both the short run and the long run. This research employs a quantitative approach with an explanatory design using quarterly time series data from 2010Q1 to 2024Q4. The analysis method applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short-run and long-run relationships and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to assess the adjustment process toward equilibrium. The results show that credit has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both the short run and long run. Deposits do not have a significant effect on economic growth. The BI Rate also does not significantly affect economic growth in either period. Credit emerges as the most influential variable in driving economic activity through the channeling of funds to the real sector.

Pengaruh IPTIK, Infrastruktur, dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Disparitas Pendapatan di Kawasan Timur Indonesia

2026-04-29T06:03:37+00:00

This study was motivated by the high income disparities among regions in Eastern Indonesia (KTI), which require serious attention. Using panel data regression analysis covering 17 provinces in KTI from 2015 to 2024, this study aims to examine how IPTIK, infrastructure, and poverty influence income disparities. Based on the results of testing the best model, the most appropriate model is the Random Effects Model (REM). Findings in this study indicate that IPTIK and water infrastructure significantly reduce income disparities. On the other hand, poverty has a positive and significant effect on increasing income disparity. Meanwhile, road infrastructure was not found to have a significant impact on income disparity. However, simultaneously, the variables of ICT, infrastructure, and poverty all influence income disparity in Eastern Indonesia. Based on these results, policies are needed that focus on equitable access to ICT, infrastructure, and poverty alleviation to reduce income disparity in Eastern Indonesia.

PENGARUH INFLASI REGIONAL TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR PETANI (NTP) DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT

2026-06-21T23:22:00+00:00

This study analyzes the effect of regional inflation on the Farmers Terms of Trade (FTT) in West Sumatra Province for the period 2010:Q1–2024:Q4. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with quarterly data, this study aims to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics of the relationship between regional inflation and farmers' welfare as measured by FTT. The results of the F-Bounds Test confirm the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship. In the long run, regional inflation has a significant negative effect on FTT, with a coefficient of −222.32, indicating that a 1 percent increase in regional inflation decreases FTT by 222.32 index points. In the short run, regional inflation also has a significant negative effect at the current period, while lagged responses show a complex oscillation pattern reflecting delayed price pass-through effects. The Error Correction Term coefficient of −1.0079 confirms that the system adjusts toward long-run equilibrium at approximately 100.79 percent per quarter. These findings confirm that persistent inflationary pressure consistently erodes farmers' purchasing power through rising household consumption costs and agricultural input costs. Policy recommendations include strengthening regional price stabilization through the Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID), improving agricultural input subsidies, and enhancing market information systems.

Keywords: Regional Inflation, Farmers' Terms of Trade, ARDL, West Sumatra, Agricultural Welfare.

Determinan Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pangan Rumah Tangga Miskin di Kabupaten Solok

2026-07-20T06:35:31+00:00

This study aims to analyze the socioeconomic factors that influence food consumption expenditures among poor households in Solok Regency and to examine the simultaneous relationship between food consumption expenditures and household income. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data from the 2024 National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS). The variables used include income, marital status, age of the head of household, education level of the head of household, and internet access. The sample consists of 10,354 poor households in the bottom 40 percent of expenditure (deciles 1 through 4) in Solok Regency. The data were analyzed using the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results of the study show that: 1) Income, marital status, age of the head of household, education level of the head of household, and internet access have a significant effect on food consumption expenditures among poor households. 2) Food consumption expenditure, the age of the head of household, the head of household’s education level, and internet access have a significant effect on the income of poor households, whereas marital status does not have a significant effect. This study indicates a simultaneous relationship between food consumption expenditures and the income of poor households. The findings are expected to provide input for local governments in formulating policies to improve the welfare and food security of poor households in Solok Regency.

Peranan Sektor Transportasi dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Dalam Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia: Analisis Input-Output

2026-05-07T09:42:49+00:00

This study analyzes the role of the transportation sector and government spending on Indonesia's economic growth, as measured by input-output analysis. The method used is input-output analysis, which measures the backward and forward linkages in the transportation sector and the multiplier effect on output, income, and employment in the Indonesian economic sector. This study uses input-output data from 185 sectors in 2020, with the transportation sector aggregated to 179 sectors in total, processed using Microsoft Excel. The analysis shows that the transportation sector has the ability to push and pull within the transportation sector itself. Meanwhile, the distribution power index indicates that the transportation sector is less attractive than other sectors, while the sensitivity of the transportation sector is able to drive sector output growth in Indonesia.

PENGARUH DIGITALISASI TERHADAP KETIMPANGAN PENDAPATAN REGIONAL DI INDONESIA

2026-07-07T08:03:20+00:00

This study aims to analyze the influence of digitalization as measured by the variables of digital accessibility and digital skills as well as macroeconomic control variables including Gross Regional Domestic Product per capita and the open unemployment rate, on regional income inequality. The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the badan pusat statistic in 34 provinces in Indonesia during the period 2015–2024. with the panel data regression method and the Random Effect Model selection method. The results show that the digital accessibility variable has a negative and insignificant effect on the Gini index. Conversely, the digital skills variable has a negative and significant effect on regional income inequality, indicating that increasing the digital capacity of the community contributes to reducing economic inequality. Meanwhile, the variables of GRDP per capita and the open poverty rate were found to have a negative and insignificant effect on income inequality at the provincial level. Simultaneously, all independent variables in this research model have a significant effect on regional income inequality in Indonesia.